NO we did not sell all our hay to Texans!  In fact I don't think we sold a single bale going to Texas.  That being said we did sell a lot of hay to new people this year- as their regular suppliers sold out very early... now that hay MAY HAVE gone to Texas.  So our supply was depleted much earlier than normal anyway.    We didn't put out a sign saying 'NO TEXANS' (For the record, I am from Texas, so don't be so down on my people.)  We just put a maximum number of bales to new customers and that wasn't enough for a semi load.  Problem solved. 

By mid-summer it became pretty obvious, but up to that point I admit that I really underestimated the impact that the Texas draught would have on us here in Colorado.  Lesson learned.  So do we have to worry about Texas in 2012?  Maybe so…

They are still in draught AND the forecast has much of the south remaining in draught into spring -

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/monitor.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

And NOAA says no immediate relief in site: 

U.S. dealt another La Niña winter but ‘wild card’ could trump it

Devastating drought in Southern Plains likely to continue

October 20, 2011

With La Niña in place Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and parts of surrounding states are unlikely to get enough rain to alleviate the ongoing drought. Texas, the epicenter of the drought, experienced its driest 12-month period on record from October 2010 through September 2011.

See:   http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111020_winteroutlook.html

When the rain does come… it’s not just ‘back to business’ for hay producers in Texas.  If this is the worst draught in over 100 years there isn’t anyone around with a good deal of experience on how well these grasses will survive.

Grass Recovery 

http://drought.unl.edu/ranchplan/AfterDrought/GrassRecovery.aspx

Effects of DroughtPlant mortality increases as severity and duration of drought increase.

Plant mortality is highest among shallow rooted species.

In summer-grazed pastures, declines in ecological condition are directly linked to the decline of plant species that are most preferred by livestock.

Litter and standing plant herbage decline as prolonged drought continues even on nongrazed rangeland.

The process is exacerbated by grazing.

Declines in protective plant cover reduce hydrologic condition of land surfaces which reduces the efficiency of precipitation.

So even if weather gets back to normal, don’t assume that those Texas trucks won’t be coming back to Colorado next year. 

And note here that if Texas doesn’t get rain their farmers will likely get cut back on water for irrigation as the reservoirs are being drawn down to uncomfortable levels already. 

Texas Drought
 
Cooler weather brings no drought relief

http://www.lcra.org/water/drought/index.html

The 12 months from October 2010 through September 2011 were the driest for that 12-month period in Texas since 1895, when the state began keeping rainfall records. Early October’s rain brought a slight respite, but did little to change the overall drought situation. to

Given this forecast, LCRA’s Board of Directors decided Sept. 21 ask the state for permission to significantly curtail or cut off water for downstream agricultural use next year if the levels of lakes Buchanan and Travis remain low. You can read more about that decision here. LCRA submitted the interim relief request to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) on Oct. 4 and it is tentatively scheduled to be considered at TCEQ’s Dec. 7 meeting.

If you can’t find hay at all… THERE ARE OPTIONS

Alternative Feeds for Horses during Hay Shortages

http://www.livestocktrail.uiuc.edu/horsenet/paperDisplay.cfm?ContentID=9837

 Quality Hay Alternatives for Your Horse

http://www.horse-journal.com/sample/Quality-Hay-Alternatives-for-Equine.html

 Stretching Your Horse’s Hay Supply During Drought

http://www.ext.colostate.edu/PUBS/livestk/01625.html